Yuhana Barakzai of Shell says deglobalization, AI revolution, and climate change as the three major forces reshaping the world.
The economist says that despite the U.S. moving away from climate protections, companies continue to work towards long-term climate goals, and optimism will always win out despite shaky global tensions.
I joined Shell because of three reasons. I believe that the next few decades will be circling around three main themes—and that is deglobalization, AI revolution, and climate change.
With so much upheaval politically, socially, and environmentally, it’s unclear which forces will leave the greatest mark on the decades to come. Will it be tariff fragmentation and the unraveling of global supply chains? The rise of AI and its disruption of nearly every industry? Or the escalating urgency of climate change and the pressure it places on governments and corporations alike?
For Yuhana Barakzai, Deal Structurer at Shell, the answer isn’t simple—but he places his bets on three major forces already reshaping the world as we know it. And despite the endless list of unknowns,
Three pillars: When Barakzai accepted the role with Shell, he sought greater purpose in joining a dominant world player that could have an impact on wider global changes. “I joined Shell because of three reasons,” Barakzai says. “I believe that the next few decades will be circling around three main themes—and that is deglobalization, AI revolution, and climate change.”
Deglobalization: Each, he explained, was already reshaping how countries and corporations operate. For deglobalization, Barakzai pointed to growing geopolitical tensions and a move toward national self-reliance. “With deglobalization, we have to consider geographical tensions and issues, as well as countries being more self-dependent,” he says. “Tariffs only amplify this issue.”
Trickle-down regulations: The second major theme, AI, was accelerating faster than many could adapt. He pointed to an AI arms race progressed or hindered by regulation, making it difficult to call who would lead the pack. “I’ve always looked at the EU as having stricter regulations, stricter guidelines—which obviously then trickles down into how many of these companies have the freedom to get data and essentially develop AI use cases,” he says. “So I think China and the U.S. will—again, as in the majority of cases when it comes to these kinds of things—lead the charge. I think your other counterparties will follow suit, probably not as fast as China and the U.S., but they’ll be there. Will they be a major player? That remains to be seen.”
From a climate perspective, I think it’s been business as usual. A lot of companies have these 2030, 2040, 2050 goals—and they’re working towards that. They’re very aware. They’re looking at what’s happening around them and then making those steps.
Extra proof: The third shift—climate change—was especially relevant in the energy sector, where Barakzai says Shell was beginning to see new expectations from clients around transparency and accountability. “We’ve had a few projects where companies have come to us asking for specific renewable energy criteria—which is new in our industry,” he says. “A lot of companies, in order to prevent greenwashing and require extra evidence—whether to present to their shareholders, board, or to government authorities—they’re asking for day-to-day proof of how their green energy is sourced.”
Getting granular: Traditionally, energy sourcing would be reported monthly or even annually, but the expectations were becoming far more granular. “Now it’s taken down to a more granular level—day-to-day or even from a more half-hourly perspective,” he explains. “That is something a few companies are spearheading, and it’s only going to spread across other industries.” He referenced the recent Deutsche Bank greenwashing scandal as a wake-up call. “You can expect a lot of other banks to look at that and say, well, we’ve got to be a bit more careful with any of our green claims.”
Future goals: Despite the U.S. moving away from climate protections, Barakzai says much of the climate work continues steadily behind the scenes. “From a climate perspective, I think it’s been business as usual,” he says. “A lot of companies have these 2030, 2040, 2050 goals—and they’re working towards that. They’re very aware. They’re looking at what’s happening around them and then making those steps.”
